Ian

A Big Election

There's nothing pollsters like more than a big election. It's a chance for them to test the degree of accuracy of their understanding of public opinion.

US Voting beginsPersonally, I don't really mind who's going to be the next President of the United States - as long as it's Obama - but I do have a real interest in finding out which poll is going to come the closest at predicting the margin of victory.

This year, my money's on the Harris Poll - they've got a great track record in this - and I have to say that they're suggesting a landslide in favour of Obama.

While other pollsters broadly agree on the outcome - the difference in the size of Obama's victory is up for much debate.

Which of the polls below do you reckon will come the closest? (Competition ends just before final results announced!!)

Pre-election final polls - scores on the doors:

  • Harris: 52% - 44% in favour of Obama. (Margin 8%)
  • Gallup: 53% - 40% in favour of Obama. (Margin 13%)
  • Rasmussen: 52% - 46% in favour of Obama. (Margin 6%)
  • Washington Post: 54% - 43% in favour of Obama. (Margin 11%)
  • Ipsos: 48% - 43% in favour of Obama. (Margin 5%)

7 Comments so far
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Rasmussen.

Although if he wins at a canter that’d be with a Gallup.

That’s a non-betting man’s safe bet…

Irish Legend by several lengths.

Actually - I’m going to suggest 49% to 45% in favour of Obama - 4% margin. Just a gut instinct!

Who cares lads - he won! Rejoice!

Final scores on the doors were:

52.3%, compared with Mr McCain’s 46.4%. which makes Ramussen the closest!

Oh - and well done Obama!!

I just want you to know that I think you did a terrific job on this websight.



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